The Edmonton Oilers have experienced a notable turnaround in their performance following the trade of goaltender Stuart Skinner to the Pittsburgh Penguins on December 12, 2023. In the nine games since the trade, the Oilers have secured six wins, propelling them into first place in the Pacific Division, while Skinner has struggled with three losses and no wins in his three games with Pittsburgh.

In the trade, Skinner, along with veteran defenseman Brett Kulak and a second-round draft pick in 2029, was exchanged for goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry, prior to sustaining a groin injury, recorded three wins and no losses, accompanied by an .887 save percentage. The Oilers’ new backup, Connor Ingram, has contributed positively with two wins against one loss and a commendable .915 save percentage. Meanwhile, Calvin Pickard, who has stepped in during Jarry’s absence, has been performing exceptionally well, boasting a .924 save percentage over four games.

Despite the significant changes in the Oilers’ goaltending lineup, Skinner’s performance has sharply contrasted with that of his successors. Before Tuesday night’s games, Skinner’s statistics reflected no wins, three losses, and a troubling .831 save percentage. The Oilers, collectively, have achieved a team save percentage of .907, ranking ninth in the NHL during this stretch. Before the trade, the team struggled, sitting at 31st in the league with a .873 save percentage.

Analyzing the Defensive Shift

Curiosity about the change in goaltending performance leads to a deeper examination of the team’s defensive play. Initially, in their first 31 games, the Oilers allowed an average of 13.9 Grade A shots per game, including 6.1 high-danger shots, often referred to as 5-alarm shots. These shots have a conversion rate of approximately 22% on average for Grade A shots and 33% for 5-alarm shots.

In contrast, during the past nine games, the Oilers’ defensive performance seemingly declined. They have given up an average of 16.1 Grade A shots and 7.9 high-danger shots per game. Under normal circumstances, this would indicate a higher level of difficulty for goaltenders. Yet, the current goalies have not only adapted but thrived under these conditions.

The disparity raises questions about motivation and competition within the team. With Jarry aiming to make a strong impression in his new environment and both Ingram and Pickard battling for their NHL futures, their heightened motivation may be driving their success. Pickard’s recent performances suggest he is playing with urgency, reflecting an athlete eager to seize the opportunity.

As the Oilers navigate the remainder of the season, the dynamics of their goaltending situation will remain crucial. The team’s ability to sustain this level of performance, particularly in light of their defensive statistics, will be tested as they strive to maintain their position at the top of the Pacific Division. The contrast between Skinner’s struggles and the newfound success of his replacements underscores the unpredictable nature of professional sports, where a single trade can dramatically alter a team’s trajectory.